Penalty shootouts: the rules, the numbers and the battle in the mind

Cup ties regularly end in a penalty shootout. Many call it a lottery, but the statistics tell a more nuanced story.

The rules in brief

Five kicks per side are taken alternately, and once the outcome is decided the remaining kicks are not taken. If the scores are level, sudden death follows in pairs. Only players on the pitch at the end of the match may take a kick, and the goalkeeper must keep at least one foot on the goal line at the moment of the kick.

What the numbers show

Roughly three quarters of penalties are converted at major tournaments, but the rate falls noticeably in shootouts - so pressure has a measurable effect. Statistics also show the greatest risk lies with kicks where a miss means immediate elimination: those are the least likely to be scored.

The practice dilemma

Many coaches argue penalties cannot be practised because fatigue and the noise of a full stadium cannot be simulated. Yet the most successful national teams of recent years have proved the opposite: fixing the order in advance, building a routine and having goalkeepers do their homework on opponents' previous penalties all provide a measurable edge.

The goalkeeper's tools

Is dancing on the line banned? No: the goalkeeper may move along the line, he simply must not leave it early. Delaying, a small step to one side and breaking the taker's eye contact are all standard devices - the point is to make the taker uncertain about his decision.