New coach, instant improvement? What the numbers say about managerial changes
Aug 30, 2026 · 12:05
The bounce after a new appointment is real - but it may not be down to the new coach.
When a team performs badly, the quickest reaction is to change the coach. The question is what it is really worth.
The short-term improvement
Statistics show results usually improve for a few matches after a managerial change. Most research suggests this is largely not down to the change itself: clubs tend to sack coaches at a low point, and statistically a low point is usually followed by improvement anyway.
What genuinely changes
In the short term a new coach mostly alters the team's shape, individual roles and the mood. Players get a chance to prove themselves again, which can bring measurable increases in running volume and intensity. That effect typically fades within a few weeks.
When does it make sense?
When the incoming coach's style suits the existing squad, and when the club consistently builds around him in the following transfer windows. A change made purely because of supporter pressure usually leads to another change within months.
The real cost
A managerial change is not only about severance: it also costs time. Embedding a playing style takes months, and reshaping a squad takes several transfer windows. That is why the most stable clubs over the long term are also the ones that change coach least often.